Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk. Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian Edwards. Bad presentation of .. the United States as Calculated risks: how to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon.
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Gigerenzer uses logic, math, and common sense to explain the fascinating pull of statistics used by those who try to influence us. As a “Medical Minimalist” I have often encountered resistance from doctors who have insisted I follow the proscribed schedule of “screening” tests.
Thinking, Fast and Slow Kindle Edition.
A critic of vigerenzer work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, he argues that heuristics should not lead us to rrisks of human thinking as riddled with irrational cognitive biases, but rather to conceive rationality as an adaptive tool that is not identical to the rules of formal logic or the probability calculus.
Withoutabox Submit to Film Festivals. Gigerenzer stresses that students have a high motivation to learn statistics but that it is typically poorly taught.?
Calculated Risks: How to know when numbers deceive you: Gerd Gigerenzer
Wissenschaftsbuch des Jahres Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read calcylated write. Paperbackpages. Deciding whether to have a mammogram or other medical screening the book examines several requires people to calculate the risk that is inherent is taking these tests.?
Mammograms can show a noninvasive cancer called ductal carcinoma in situwhich is predominately nonfatal and needs no treatment, but is initially seen as a guess of cancer. For me, as a medical student, the day-to-day applications of this book are endless. Gigerenzer follows this up with a three prisoner problem which is similar.
Cognitive scientis At the beginning of the twentieth century, H.
Calculated Risks | Book by Gerd Gigerenzer | Official Publisher Page | Simon & Schuster
Even professionals doctors, people in the legal system, social workers get confused between different kinds of probabilities. The author speaks in a gentle and gsrd voice, guiding readers into the land of statistics. We are generally beset by what he calls innumeracy – a lack of understanding gierenzer numbers and what they mean.
A false positive is a test result that says, ‘yes, the person has the virus,’ when actually the person doesn’t. Recommended as further reading by Ben Goldacre in Bad Science. So out of 9, people ca,culated are not really infected with the virus, another 1 individual will receive a false positive result. Unfortunately I have to admit that I’m one of those people who wasn’t exactly very good in maths and this books pretty much underlines the seriousness of that.
Open Preview See a Problem? He clearly expresses the REASON people are often confused by statistical risk calculations and defines appropriate and immediately applicable solutions to help our society become numerate the mathematical equivalent of being literate and capable of making our own decisions about caluclated risks we are willing to take in regards to health screenings mammograms, HIV testing, etc.
Customers who viewed this glgerenzer also viewed. The two conditional factors are placed the other way around. When you hear quotes from prosecutors such as ‘there is a one-in-a-million chance that someone else besides this suspect committed the crime,’ they’re getting their statements badly wrong.
Jun 16, Terrie rated it really liked it.
Furthermore, people assume that gedd a second test will eliminate all doubts. The text is somewhat lengthy and repetitive, but accessible for a wide range of audience, especially non-technical readers. Gigerenzer shows through diagrams, charts and tables, and something called natural frequencies just how we can be misled by the way probabilities are presented. The delivery is likely to stick with readers better, giving them a calcupated chance of actually using the cqlculated for critical evaluation of calculafed situations.
Alexa Actionable Analytics for the Web. Jul 18, Marcelle rated it really liked it Shelves: This is an important topic for The book discusses different presentations on statistical numbers, especially rare incidents such as HIV infection and breast cancer in which false positives are prevailent. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, ggerd election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.
It demonstrates many numerical errors the press, the public, and experts make in interpreting the accuracy of medical screening test mammography, HIV test, etc But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1, women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1, women who do, 3 will die.
This awfulness is thrust upon the general public, and it has lead to wrongful imprisonment, unnecessary surgeries, and suicides. Fans of Innumeracy will enjoy Calculated Risksas will anyone who appreciates a good puzzle over numbers. I used to believe, but the author shook my firm believe in this.
Jul 29, Nayef Ahmad rated it it was amazing. It’s a mesmerizing statistics book. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. One particular fraction may represent the probability that, say, a person who has HIV tests positive for the virus. Lists with This Book. We hear LOTS of statistics in the media when reporting news on our health, politics, environment, etc.
Would you like to tell us about a lower price? Gigerenzer has shown here, and in other research, that this tool is unnatural and difficult to use and that people consistently poorly estimate the answer.